SpaceX — Space & ISR · fobi

SpaceX

SpaceX manufactures rockets and satellites, operates the Starlink constellation, and provides launch services for government and defense missions. Valued at $180B+ in 2024; Starshield program for defense and intelligence; SpaceX launching majority of US national security payloads; Starlink proven in combat.

Starlink has become the backbone of battlefield communications in Ukraine, and SpaceX launch dominance is critical to US space superiority and rapid reconstitution.

spacex.com Space & ISR

United Statesprivate

At a glance

Total raised

$7.4B

last round secondary

Headcount

10k+

approximate · public range

Headquarters

Hawthorne

United States

Founded

2002

24 years active

Status

Private

Space & ISR

Latest valuation

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Date	Stage	Amount	Valuation	Lead investors
Dec 1, 2024	Secondary	$1.3B	$350B	—
Jan 1, 2023	Series J	$750M	$137B

AI bull / bear

Bull case

SpaceX has made itself structurally irreplaceable to US defense and intelligence. In the last 30 days alone, the company won $6.45B in new Space Force contracts — $4.16B for space-based aircraft tracking and $2.29B for a proliferated LEO SATCOM backbone, both to deliver by 2028. No other launch provider can absorb the national security manifest; the New Glenn failure had zero impact on the launch schedule because Falcon 9 carries the load. Starlink is already combat-proven in Ukraine, and the Pentagon is embedding it deeper — from surveillance balloons in the Indo-Pacific to LUCAS drone connectivity. Starshield creates a dedicated defense revenue stream that converts Starlink's LEO architecture into a classified, government-owned capability. At a $180B+ valuation, SpaceX is underpriced relative to the monopoly it holds over US space access, battlefield connectivity, and next-generation sensor deployment. The Pentagon has no viable path to replace SpaceX within this decade.

Bear case

SpaceX's relationship with the Pentagon is showing dangerous cracks. During the Iran conflict, SpaceX demanded higher rates for Starlink military access and sparred publicly with the DoD over pricing — the monthly cost to link LUCAS drones to Starshield jumped from $5K to $25K. That kind of leverage play from a sole-source supplier is a recipe for congressional backlash and funded parallel programs. Elon Musk's unpredictable leadership compounds the risk: one impulsive decision or geopolitical provocation could shatter trust with the very agencies that write SpaceX's largest checks. Meanwhile, competitors are emerging. Blue Origin, ULA, and Rocket Lab are building reusable architectures, and the Space Force is actively funding multi-provider strategies for both launch and SATCOM. If the Pentagon accelerates alternative suppliers — or if Congress mandates competition after the next pricing dispute — SpaceX loses its monopoly premium and its $180B valuation begins to compress.

Generated by deepseek-v4-flash · June 2, 2026Refreshes quarterly · see disclosures

SpaceX

At a glance

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Funding history

How they make money

Founder backgrounds

Elon Musk

AI bull / bear

In the news

KC-135 Tanker Spotted With New Satellite Communications Antenna

National security launch schedule not likely impacted by New Glenn disaster

Pentagon’s Plans To Track Aircraft From Orbit Accelerated With New $4B SpaceX Deal

SpaceX wins $4B deal to accelerate deployment of aircraft-tracking satellites

SpaceX wins $4.16B Space Force contract to detect airborne moving targets

Army Wants More Sensor-Laden Surveillance Balloons Over The Pacific

Watch

Leadership

Products

Starshield

Starlink

Falcon 9 / Falcon Heavy

Starship

Open roles

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