EVgo

EVgo is the rare charging company whose operating model is actually converging on profitability. FY2025 revenue grew 50% to $384.1M — the sixteenth consecutive quarter of double-digit charging-revenue growth — with gross margin nearly doubling to 21.0% (38.0% in Q4) and the company's first positive adjusted EBITDA year at +$12.0M, followed by a record Q1 2026 of ~$110M, up 45%. The owner-operator flywheel is working: 5,280 stalls as of Q1 2026 (up 25% year over year), throughput of 366 GWh in 2025 (up 32%), per-stall utilization rising 9%, and 1.6 million customer accounts — density economics that hardware-sellers like ChargePoint never touch. The capital stack survived the stress test that mattered: the $1.25B DOE loan facility closed December 2024 was not cancelled under the Trump administration but amended to $750M in April 2026 on unchanged fundamentals (17-year term, Treasury +~1.2%), with $81M drawn and cash plus restricted cash of $223M as of May 2026, supplemented by a $225M commercial bank facility raised in July 2025 for 1,500+ high-power stalls including dedicated hubs for autonomous and fleet vehicles. Guidance calls for $410–470M of 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA between −$20M and +$20M, with the operating-leverage inflection — charging gross profit covering adjusted G&A — targeted in H2 2026. Structural demand is coming regardless of tax-credit politics: rideshare partnerships with Uber and Lyft, GM flagship stations, Kroger site expansion, NACS stalls deploying, and the post-credit EV parc still growing means every additional EV on US roads feeds an installed network that is already built.

EVgo's breakeven milestone dissolves under inspection: the +$12.0M FY2025 adjusted EBITDA included a $24.1M non-recurring "ancillary contract closeout payment" — excluding it, the year was still roughly $12M negative, and the counterparty was never even identified. The GAAP reality is a $95.4M net loss for 2025 and $37.0M in Q1 2026 alone, and 2026 guidance brackets zero on an adjusted metric that excludes the very capex — $116.7M in 2025 — that owner-operator economics require, permanently. The DOE loan story is a 40% haircut spun as survival: maximum advances fell from $1.05B to $625M, Cantor cut its price target on the news, and the smaller facility means either slower deployment or more expensive replacement capital. The market's verdict is unambiguous — the stock traded at $1.95 in May 2026, near its 52-week low of $1.64 and down over 60% from the $5.00 price at which LS Power sold 23 million shares in a December 2024 secondary that itself knocked the stock down 18%: the insider with the best information has been reducing exposure. Structural threats bracket the model: Tesla's Superchargers, now open to all brands, set a price and reliability bar EVgo's retail-sited stalls struggle to match; Ionna's eight-OEM consortium is building dense metro fast charging aimed at exactly EVgo's segment; and the September 2025 death of the $7,500 credit plus the mid-2026 expiry of 30C hits future EV adoption — the sole driver of throughput growth — right as EVgo's leverage thesis needs it most. A sub-$600M market cap with $37M quarterly losses leaves little room for any stumble.